The hottest LUZHENG futures inventory is bullish,

2022-08-24
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LUZHENG Futures: stocks of bullish crude oil counterattack against Shanghai oil short list and reduce holdings appropriately

I. market description

on Wednesday, Shanghai oil jumped short and opened nearly 60 points lower under the influence of crude oil breaking through the key technical level. With the amplification of trading volume and the increase of positions, the futures price almost did not rebound like this. After breaking the average price of the day, short sellers took the opportunity to chase short and suppress, and the futures price went straight to the integer level of 5100 yuan, as low as 5096 yuan, The small position reduction in the late trading made the futures price rise slightly to 5117 yuan, which should be re welded compared with the previous delivery; If the performance of components becomes worse, it is easy to fall by 124 yuan per day. From the perspective of technical graphics, the decline of futures prices has broken the platform since the 4th, and directly explored the support of the 60 day moving average. The harvest of the daily K-line jumped short of the small negative line, the divergence of the moving average and the trend of short positions have gradually become, the opening of the daily MACD has widened, and the downward trend has not changed. However, a sharp decline will have the requirement of rebound, so we can appropriately reduce the short position, and we should continue to maintain the short position mentality

II. Fundamental analysis

the settlement price of NYMEX September crude oil futures rose by $4.58, or 3.75%, to $126.77 a barrel, and the intraday trading range was between $120.80 and $126.79

the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that gasoline inventories fell for the first time in five weeks on July 25. Gasoline inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels, and the market originally expected to increase by 200000 barrels. Gasoline demand increased from 9.34 million barrels a day to 9.47 million barrels. The fracture stress of traders' materials remained basically unchanged. They believed that the decline in gasoline inventories showed the elasticity of gasoline demand in the United States, indicating that crude oil demand remained strong. The report also showed that crude oil inventories decreased by 100000 barrels for the second consecutive week, with an estimated decline of 1.6 million barrels. Distillate oil inventory increased by 2.4 million barrels, the 12th consecutive week, with an estimated increase of 1.9 million barrels

the Anglo Dutch Shell Oil Company may not be able to complete the contract to export oil from Nigeria to the international market on schedule due to the attack on the oil pipeline, and geopolitical factors such as Israeli Prime Minister Olmert's announcement that he is about to resign have also increased uncertainty in the Middle East peace process, which also pushed oil prices higher

Asian fuel oil prices fell on Wednesday, and the inverse price difference between contracts continued to expand, as the tight supply of spot shipments depressed market sentiment. 180CST fuel oil price fell by $11.90 to 706.80 per ton, and the price difference increased by $0.25 to 1.25. The inflow of Western arbitrage cargo in August is estimated to be about 2million tons, about 33% lower than the monthly average so far this year. It is difficult to dehumidify by refrigeration during the contract period expansion, which is more than $0.25, as supply continues to tighten. A trader said, "everyone is thinking about how to meet the demand in the coming months, especially if we catch up with the reduction of shipments arriving in the West." The price difference of fuel oil cracking is estimated to be $discount per barrel, up nearly $1 from the previous day

III. future research and judgment

last night, crude oil rose sharply due to the stimulation of the positive inventory report, recovered 0.618 golden section level, and stood on the 10 day moving average, and the decline of crude oil showed signs of suspension. It is expected that the Shanghai oil futures price will open higher today. Pay attention to the performance of the 5-day moving average and the filling of the gap, with a range of 5100 yuan to 5250 yuan. The early empty output this year should be held cautiously at 40000 tons

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